Serious
doubts are emerging over the fate of the monsoon this year as the first month
of the four-month season is nearing its end with a massive deficiency in rains
over most parts of the country.
As
of Wednesday, the cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the season
continues to be deficient over 74 per cent of the country’s total geographical
area: in 37 per cent of the area, the deficiency exceeds 60 per cent.
The
situation is particularly grim in North India — rainfall is deficient by 90 per
cent over the Haryana-Delhi-Chandigarh region, 87 per cent over West Uttar
Pradesh, 69 per cent over East Uttar Pradesh, 78 per cent over Punjab, 67 per
cent over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, 75 per cent over West Rajasthan and
69 per cent over East Rajasthan.
The
situation is also far from being rosy over northern parts of west India, and
several parts of Central India — rainfall is deficient by 71 per cent over
Gujarat, 70 per cent over Saurashtra-Kutch region, 61 per cent over West Madhya
Pradesh, 43 per cent over East Madhya Pradesh, 60 per cent over Marathwada and
52 per cent over Madhya Maharashtra.
In
addition, rainfall has been well below normal in some parts of the south
peninsular region. Rainfall is deficient by 57 per cent over Tamil Nadu and
Pondicherry, 54 per cent over Rayalaseema in Andhra Pradesh, 49 per cent over
south interior Karnataka, 46 per cent over north interior Karnataka and 31 per
cent over Kerala.
What
makes the overall situation worrisome is that there appears to be no
possibility of much relief in the deficient areas except for some parts of
Central India for at least the next one week.
According
to a bulletin of the India Meteorological Department, the present pattern of
widespread rains over a narrow belt of about 100 km width along the west coast
and over the north-east and eastern part of the country and scattered to
isolated rains over the remaining parts of the country is likely to by and
large would continue till July 4.
Low
pressure area
The
only difference that is likely is some increase in rain over some parts of
Central India adjoining the east coast from July 1.
“There
are some signs for the formation of a low pressure area in the northern part of
the Bay of Bengal around July 1. If that happens, it could lead to increase in
rainfall over areas in Central India that adjoin the east coast,” senior IMD
scientists told The Hindu .
Given
the present situation, it seems very difficult for the forecast of a normal
monsoon this year, particularly since international models and nationals have
indicated that the El Nino phenomenon could emerge in August-September and have
an adverse impact on the rains then, according to some IMD meteorologists who
chose to remain anonymous.
The
IMD, however, continued to stick to its forecast. Senior officials of the
Department exuded confidence that the deficiencies would get neutralised in the
coming days and weeks.
“The
forecast has factored in the El Nino. We still have three months to go. Some
goods spells of rain down the line would be able to overcome the deficiencies,
” they said.
· The situation
is particularly grim in North India
· The
deficiencies will get neutralised in the coming weeks: IMD
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