How safe are our cities? (Times of India 27 March 2011)

Indrani Rajkhowa Banerjee,

The Japanese had planned a worst case scenario of an earthquake of 8.4 on the Richter scale, but the actual quake registered 9 on the scale. The fact is that the science of prediction when it comes to natural disasters is non-existent. The fury of nature is beyond human comprehension.

As Japan picks up the pieces after the devastation, the disturbing pictures push us to take stock of the situation back home. A quick recce of the situation reveals that megacities like Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai and Bangalore are living on the edge, caught in an endless debate on development vs environmental protection. Here's a lowdown on the environmental time bomb that our metros are sitting on.
On shaky ground: Delhi
Studies predict a quake measuring 7 on the Richter striking Delhi within a 50-year window of 1983-2033. Are we prepared? With a calamity of such magnitude looming large, it's shocking that the city planners have converted the most vulnerable areas of the city, including the fragile floodplains of the Yamuna, into thriving urban habitats.
Here's some more shocking information. The Delhi Secretariat, the high-seat of power, and the office of Delhi Police Commissioner are two of the most high-risk buildings in the city, both built on the floodplains. To quote Sunita Narain, director of Centre for Science and Environment, "Earthquakes do not kill. Buildings kill." It's an irony that the government fails to see this simple truth. An intense earthquake will bring down such construction like a pack of cards, causing unprecedented loss of lives. Manoj Mishra, convener of Yamuna Jiye Abhiyaan, says, "There's unauthorised and unabated construction all over the city. Builders do not always comply with earthquakeproof designs and standards. Overall, there is no strict enforcement from civic bodies and environment impact assessment is a hog- wash. Entire east Delhi (including Ghaziabad and Noida) lying in the floodplains of Yamuna and Hindon rivers belong to the 'very high damage' zone."
Expert Speak: Nowhere should the power of a quake and flood be underestimated. And when the two combine, the results can be deadly. If the Yamuna floodplains are stifled with permanent structures, Delhi will be prone to severe floods in the future. Also, better and stricter housing laws have to be put in place.
As climate change threatens a rise in sea levels, India's biggest megacity – the business nerve centre Mumbai — faces immediate threats. A study by a group of 100 international scientists says that sea levels are likely to rise by as much as 1.4 metres (more than 4 feet) by the end of this century. If these projections come true, most of Mumbai would go under the sea. Mumbaikars already had a preview of Doomsday when regular monsoon showers turned into the 'great Mumbai deluge', disrupting the lives of millions. The danger of similar calamities, which could cripple Mumbai forever, looms large. Bittu Sahgal, editor of Sanctuary Asia, says, "An exceptional series of rainstorms could seriously impact the whole city. The natural storm water drainage system of Mumbai has been disrupted by haphazard urban construction. The Mithi river, which used to carry the monsoon water back to the sea, is totally clogged. To top it, coastal vegetation and mangroves, which acted as the buffer while protecting Mumbai from thetsunami waves have been reduced to almost nothing. That can expose the city to maximum danger if there were an onslaught from the sea."

Expert Speak: Bring in stringent laws to save the mangroves. Stop land sharks from converting the rich coastal vegetation as prime real estate!
Water woes: Kolkata
In another 55 years, Kolkata will be the most vulnerable city in the world with respect to climate change, followed by Mumbai and Dhaka, claimed a report released at a United Nations climate conference in Bali in 2007. If the claim is true, then there are many reasons that could be listed for the collapse of Kolkata. The city is already witnessing unnatural severe cyclonic storms after the monsoons, which have increased in frequency over the years.
Another threat comes from the depletion in the flow of river water into the sea. Says environmentalist Mike Pandey, "Due to unabated construction of dams and irrigation in the upper reach of the Ganga, the flow of freshwater to the delta has become less. A survey by the Central Groundwater Board of the Union water resources ministry has revealed that the city's underground water level has receded by seven to 11 metres between 1958 and 2003.
Sea water has gradually crept into the river to fill that space and into ground water, marking an increase in salinity in water used for human consumption." Environmentalists warn that groundwater arsenic and fluoride contamination could be cause for a serious human tragedy.
Also, the entire Sundarban Delta is vulnerable to rising sea levels. Kolkata is 180 km away from the coast, and a third of Kolkata may sink if the drastic fall in the groundwater level is not arrested immediately.
Expert Speak: Keep a check on dams that flout norms. Most dams in the country are built without a care for sustainable flow of fresh water into the river. The civic bodies should ensure that this gap is plugged. There also has to be a stop to illegal encroachment of the mangroves.
Fear from the sea: Chennai
The most recent serious natural disaster to hit Chennai was the great tsunami of 2004. More than 10,000 people died, over 1,25,000 homes were destroyed and hundreds of fishing boats as well as port and rail facilities were damaged. The combination of densely populated areas in the city and the risk of climate-related hazards make Chennai vulnerable to disaster.
Akira Omoto, commissioner of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission, who was one of the men involved in the design of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan, reportedly said: "We thought we had taken all precautions for a tsunami, but what happened was beyond our expectations."
Says Leo Saldanha of Environment Support Group, "Chennai, being especially close to the sea, has a huge danger of being hit by dreaded tidal waves. Sadly, we are not prepared to face the calamity with half the confidence of the Japanese, struck with three simultaneous disasters."
A scientist, under anonymity, says that the warning systems set up after the 2004 tsunami in Chennai have failed, incurring a loss of crores to the state.
However, the loss of lives and property in Japan has been comparatively less than what's envisaged inIndia in a similar scenario. Remarks Saldanha, "This is because the Japanese learnt their lessons from the Kyoto earthquake and fool-proofed their urban planning. Their buildings are earthquake-proof, a rule grossly flouted by authorities in Chennai."
Expert Speak: As seen in 2004, low lying areas of Chennai are most prone to natural disasters like the tsunami. Therefore, adequate relief shelters, healthcare and emergency facilities need to be in place. The state should take immediate measures in planting mangroves as buffers to minimise the effect of tidal waves. The state is also close to nuclear plants, also a high-risk factor during a disaster.

No breathing space: Bangalore
The once 'laidback' city is today a hub of developmental activities. Though the city has no imminent threat from earthquakes or tsunami, experts rue the fact that haphazard planning and construction is choking the city, leading to severe floods after every monsoon. Says Leo Saldanha, "If Bangalore is not equipped to handle 5 cm of rainfall, how will the state ensure the safety of human lives in the face of a big natural disaster?" The city faces meteorological disasters like storms, cyclones and heavy rainfall.
Expert Speak: Proper storm water drainage systems for the outlet of monsoon waters have to be built.
In the case of Japan, with best possible preparation, not to mention the money and scientific talent invested, it was not enough to predict what happened. It will be no different in India if a natural disaster strikes. Sadly, when it comes to saving the environment, we in India are at the stage that the West was in the 1960s. The question is — Can we replicate what the West did? According to Sunita Narain, "Change is very unlikely. It took just a few seconds for an earthquake to erase everything to the ground in north Japan. Taking a cue from Japan on the damage and possible loss of lives, the Indian government must ensure that sustainable development and not greed take over nature's bounty."